🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.