Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
