Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Data

The typical number of everyday murders per month in the country has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new government data. However, security analysts have cautioned that homicide data might not signal improved national stability.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September of last year. This data was shared by the director of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had in these past months is extremely important,” the President stated, adding that in November the lowest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Fierce cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised efforts to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than the US. Since then, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her national security strategy for an apparently sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main components of the President's safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater coordination between various agencies.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety analysts cautioned that using homicide statistics to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer valid for assessing the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to properly identify and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it may hide periods when there were particularly high numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day average makes high peaks of violence unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet in spite of these actions, Mexico remains beset by severe violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s extremely effective, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas remarked.